jboomgaarden's  Instablog

Dow: +46 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq: +24 (+0.81%)
S&P: +6 (+0.43%)
Gold: +10 (+0.55%)
Oil: +1.90 (+1.79%)
10-yr: -.01 to 2.00%

Equity markets reversed yesterday's losses and then some, led by the Nasdaq, which was up more than 0.8%. Jobless claims data this morning confirmed recent positive trends in employment, dropping the 4-week moving average to the lowest level in 4 years. Some anecdotal evidence from a current job seeker, however, indicates that those jobs are not of a particularly high quality.

It will be interesting to see if equities can continue to push higher despite the headwinds of higher oil prices and apparent recession in the Eurozone. After it appeared this year's rally was stalling earlier this week, stocks rose, albeit on relatively low volume. Other headwinds may include the end of some short covering as short positions hit 1+ year lows. Conversely, 2012 is a hotly contested election year in the U.S. and across much of Europe, generally a positive indicator for equities.

AAPL's shareholder meeting was relatively uneventful for those hoping to get some insight on what the tech behemoth plans to do with its $100B cash stockpile. CEO Tim Cook continued to reiterate the fact that he was having "discussions" regarding what to do with all that money. He did indicate, though, that $100B was more than enough to operate AAPL effectively (thank you Captain Obvious).

Both gold and oil traded higher thanks in no small part to a precipitous decline in the dollar. The 10-yr had a choopy trading day (rates up in the morning followed by a steep decline then a rebound back to flat) as investors digested that counteractign impacts of higher oil prices.

Dow: -27 (-.21%)
Nasdaq: -15 (-.52%)
S&P: -5 (-.34%)
Gold: +21 (+1.18%)
Oil: -.30 (-.28%)
10-yr: -.05 to 2.01%

Equity markets moved lower in the late morning and early afternoon but stablized in later trading. Risk was off after the Eurozone PMI showed a slight contraction against expectations of continued growth, restoking recessionary fears.

The Chinese PMI rose to a 4-month high but continued to show contraction as it has for more than 6 months. News on Monday of eased reserve requirments may get traditional credit markets heated up again. However, the "black-market" credit that many small and medium-sized firms rely on (not to mention some local governments) appears to remain icy.

The January existing home sales report was a mixed bag. Sales grew at a 4.3% clip, a continuation of recent trends. However, the uptick in volume was more than offset by a 4.6% decrease in the median selling price. Housing supply hit a new recovery low of 6.1 months, but those advocating a market bottom should be very wary. Delays in the foreclosure process have pushed back a glut of existing homes, which should hit the market in the coming months. Additionally, long-term demographic trends are working against housing prices. Each year, more and more baby boomers are retiring and looking to unload their most valuable asset.

Oil traded mostly flat following continued concerns regarding Iran. While analyst opinions downplaying the impact of Monday's trading limitations to Britain and France may be accurate, they don't fully encapsulate the gravity of the situation. If Iran follows through on threats of a pre-emptive strike, the entire Middle East, and its 50% of the world oil supply, may be dragged into conflict (see Sunni/Shia relations). If that happens, we may $150/barrell.

Dow: +16 (.12%)
Nasdaq: -3 (-.11%)
S&P: +1 (.07%)
Gold: +33 (1.92%)
Oil: +3.49 (3.40%)
10-yr: +.05 to 2.06%

Equity markets were up moderately in morning trading largely due to Greek news regarding its second round of bailout financing. The momentum fizzled as investors digested the information (a likely a buy the rumor, sell the news event) and the IMF's funding of the bailout came into question. All three major indexes closed flat.

The Dow briefly topped 13,000 in late morning/early afternoon trading, an impressive feat given the near 4% decline in stalwart Wal-Mart (WMT). The retailer grew its top line, but compressed margins continued to weigh on earnings. The news should not have been a huge surprise given the deep discounts offered to consumers this holiday season.

Home Depot (HD), on the other hand, closed up, although well off early-morning highs. The home improvement store appears to be benefitting from the mild winter as the construction season pushed later last fall and may have begun early this winter. While the climate may be beneficial now, the additional sales are likely cannibalizing some HD's usual spring and summer receipts.

There were no significant U.S. data releases, although the January Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in strong. Gold traded higher largely due to the news coming yesterday that China would ease reserve requirements. Oil moved up nearly 3.5% on news that Iran would not sell its product to British or French refineries. Airline stocks were crushed on the move, largely due to higher expected fuel costs and increased pressure on consumer spending due to higher gas prices.