Will Rahal

http://www.wrahal.blogspot.com

108 Comments

    • Maybe It's Not Just a Mental Recession [view article]
      The debt level is not mental.
      The heavy tilt to services is not mental.
      There is a 25-year cycle associated with economic distress.
       Aug 02 11:20 AM
    • As Jobs Decline [view article]
      Jobs declines will continue.
      I have posted about how every 25 years is associated with financial crisis. In 2007, right on time, we had the Mortgage Crisis.
       Aug 02 11:12 AM
    • Dollar Wins on Euro, Pound Weakness [view article]
      The slow loss of jobs cumulative effects will be felt.
      Debt and a heavy tilt to Services has made this economy(and the rest of the world's) vulnerable.
      I posted on the 25-year cycle. In 2007 the Mortgage debacle arrived
      on time to confirm another financial crisis associated with this cycle.
      It will take more that a few months to correct the excesses of a generation.
      See

      wrahal.blogspot.com/20...       Aug 02 11:10 AM
    • Bill Miller on This Tough Market [view article]
      Every 25-years(a generation) seems to be accompanied by financial crises. Right on target, in 2007 we had the mortgage debacle.

      I have posted about the 25-year cycle.
      The excesses of a generations can not be corrected in a few months.
       Aug 02 11:03 AM
    • Economic Report Summary: Disappointing Retail Sales [view article]
      I have combined two of your charts: Retail Sales and CPI
      If you deflate(divide) RS by CPI you get ta sense of "Real" Retail Sales.
      This number has continued to drop suggesting a weak consumer despite the tax rebates.

      Jul 20 11:17 AM
    • How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution [view article]
      I think that earnings disappointments will contribute to further stock market declines. Expectation of an economic "slowdown" is slowly being replaced by a serious downturn. One implication is that earnings estimates will come down significantly. The market will adjust accordingly.
      I used estimates for next week's reports and the charts clearly indicate that 1995 was a walk in the park compared to current conditions.
      See
      wrahal.blogspot.com/20...       Jul 12 04:40 PM
    • Can Earnings Season Be the Market's Savior? [view article]
      The downward adjustment in stock prices are a result of expectations being lowered by investors.
      Next week's reports (using consensus estimates) show no improvement for the the sluggish environment we are in.

       Jul 12 04:31 PM
    • Offshore Troubles, Domestic Fears [view article]
      It is a scary looking chart. Inflation is staring to be considered a more serious threat to the markets. Also, next week's reports will show that this is far more that a "slowdown" and more like a recession.
      There is plenty of room for inflation to deteriorate the earnings picture further, causing more stock market losses.
      See

      wrahal.blogspot.com/20...       Jul 12 04:26 PM
    • Even the Legends Are Losing in Today's Markets [view article]
      Analysts are still thinking "slowdown" instead of recession.The current environment is far worse than the "slowdown" of 1995.One implication is earnings will disappoint, contributing to further stock market losses.


       Jul 12 04:19 PM
    • What Was Left Out of the Jobs Report [view article]
      Wages and wealth are dropping rapidly.
      These are the driving force behind the US economy.
      As earnings decrease, the only catalyst for the stock market improvement, is a drop in commodity prices.
      After a rally, the strong commodity-related sectors will also contribute to further stock market declines.
       Jul 04 10:45 AM
    • Markets Still Sliding Away [view article]
      After a bounce, the markets will continue to drop.
      The recent action in the stock market confirms that the economic slowdown is indeed a recession.
      The tax rebates have been spent in Non-Durable vs Durable Goods, exacerbating economic malaise.

       Jun 28 05:29 PM
    • The Current Market: Investors Lack Fear [view article]
      Investors should be fearful.
      The recent action of the markets with the DJIA and breadth making new low, confirm the weak economic data I have been posting for over a year. Even after the tax rebate , consumption is concentrating in essential items as Food & Energy vs Discretionary items.
      The ratio of these two series continue to rise indicating more economic weakness.

       Jun 28 05:24 PM
    • Worst Dow June Since Depression [view article]
      We are in the greatest mess since the depression.
      The markets just confirmed this.
      Even after the tax rebates the ratio of consumption in ND-Goods to Durable Goods has risen, indicating that there is less ability to buy discretionary items. that are more stimulative for the economy.
       Jun 28 05:17 PM
    • Market Breadth Back to Lows [view article]
      The Advancing minus Declining Volume line has also broken to new lows.
      This does not bode well for the stock market, and confirms that my economic indicators pointing to a recession are valid.
      Despite the tax rebate the ratio of ND/Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, allowing for less discretionary spending needed to stimulate the economy

      See

      wrahal.blogspot.com/20...
      Jun 28 05:09 PM
    • Will the Nasdaq Take a Mean Bounce? [view article]
      The NASDAQ will take a bounce but tha tis it: just a bounce.

      On a relative basis business is in better shape than the consumer as evinced by a ratio I keep track of Business Investment expressesd as percentage of Durable Goods Orders.
      This ratio keeps climbing but it is close to a relative peak suggesting that business will follow the consumer into recession.
      The action in the stock market confirms this.

      See
      wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

      Jun 28 05:02 PM
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