Paul Meisel

311 Comments

    • Do Pickup Truck Sales Make Any Sense? [view article]
      Most tradesmen (carpenters, glaziers, plumbers, builders, repari contrators, you name it) drive some sort of a truck to carry tools and materials. Many suburbanite DIY types have one truck as a drive to work vehicle so they can move materials for projects on weekends. Many hobbyists (snowmobilers, boaters, motorcyclists) have a truck to tow or carry toys.

      In my suburban neighborhood, it is odder to have two cars and no truck. The people who do are largely retirees who have aged beyond doing home and yard projects on their own.

      I have been without a truck for two years now, and have had to borrow a neighbor's several times. Guess what my next vehicle will be?       Jan 06 12:00 PM
    • How Far Might Housing Prices Fall? [view article]
      Wait just a minute. The vast majority of rental properties in most of the US (other than resort areas) are utilitarian, smaller houses, the equivalent of starter homes. The people who rent them are largely either income or cash constrained from purchasing, are intentionally in a short term situation (e.g. divorce, relocation), or just don't want to be burdened by home ownership (think singles).

      The average family home, on the other hand, has grown in size over the last 15 years -- a 2500 sf house used to be a mansion and now is just "nice".

      This comparison is logical but statistically biased when looking at the universe. There needs to be something to sort apples from oranges.       Jan 04 07:55 AM
    • Black Swans, Real Estate and Financial Stocks [view article]
      There are several good points on both sides of this argument, overstated a little perhaps. Modern portfolio theory and its academic supporters imply a precision that is not warranted --- but some data is better than none. The statistical assumptions and methods behind QPP have some validity, but are not perfect either -- nothing in forecasting ever is!
      Jan 02 05:30 PM
    • E.W. Scripps Company: A Raging Short? [view article]
      It is amazing to me how many people watch that kind of stuff, and it has the benefit of being cheap to produce, along with (for some shows) a long rerun life. I know Scripps doesn't own this one, but "This Old House" reruns go on forever, and the HGTV and Food TV stuff has the same kind of life. Whether they can keep growing it is another question, but there is some cash cow there. Dec 27 01:54 PM
    • Subprime Root Cause Analysis [view article]
      Another thing worth considering -- the "mispricing or lack of pricing" would not be a problem if the securities were purchased by people with the intent of holding them to maturity, and accounting was done is the same manner. The folks who got into "lightly traded securities" who were in businesses that require marking to "market" were taking a bigger risk than they allowed for, and they got burned accordingly. Someone is on the favorable side of this trade. Dec 27 01:47 PM
    • Fisking Ben Stein on Goldman's 'Wrongdoing' [view article]
      I was confused. I thought all the Wall St. firms existed to help us little guys get really rich, and it just hadn't happened yet because of bad luck. Dec 24 05:02 PM
    • Wishful Thinking at The New York Times [view article]
      I don't remember the last time I actually watched a local newscast for anything but weather. Cable does everything else better. The local newspaper still serves a purpose but would be greatly enhanced by combining their generally weak news operations with those of other outlets. Dec 19 07:32 AM
    • Why Do Financial Firms Take Too Much Risk? [view article]
      Leverage and less than transparent balance sheets have always been issues in properly evaluating the risk and value of companies and assets. The "different" factor here was the combination of overconfidence in the underlying asset -- real estate values -- with the persistence of deterioration, at the same time many intermediaries had become very leveraged in these instruments. Banks and thrifts that tend to own their mortgages do not appear to be experiencing discomfort -- they can tolerate the relatively small, to them, deterioration in collateral. Dec 05 06:10 PM
    • Sears Bid For Restoration Hardware: WSJ's Weak Financial Analysis [view article]
      Just because people shouldn't do stupid things doesn't mean they won't Nov 27 02:42 PM
    • Countrywide's Henry Cisneros Was a Useless Board Member [view article]
      Let's see, 24 meetings for $358,000 -- that is around $15,000 a meeting. Forget CEO pay, that is obscene all by itself. No one can contribute that much value in a day.... Oct 25 08:02 PM
    • Countrywide: The Lender Who Helped People Save Their Homes [view article]
      "Even though I think CEO Mozillo sold shares based on the upcoming credit issue, and will be found guilty of doing so, "....

      Todd, if you are going to lead with this, you should put in some of your rationale for the opinion.

      The fact that Mozilo has been selling a lot of stock for a long time, and that it increased about a year ago, is not news to those following the stock. (Disclosure, I own none and have not.) A lot of executives sell a lot of stock to diversify, to send grandkids to college, to buy vacation homes and retirement hobby businesses...

      I just think that if you are going to express an opinion like this you should follow up with your rationale so there is no wondering what information or insight your opinion is based on.

      Although experience has taught me not to underestimate greed, in Mozilo's situation, to do anything overtly illegal would be colossally stupid -- given the visibility of his stock and his previous selling he would have to know that any change in his plans would be subject to scrutiny. Maybe I just wear rose colored glasses but I just see a rich guy who has too much of his money in one basket and is trying to move it in an orderly fashion......       Oct 25 07:49 PM
    • Where Was The Bubble: Houses, Rates or Credit? [view article]
      Houses don't usually go to zero even in Detroit -- cheap shot, Barry.

      But -- local markets can see some huge swings. I was hunting in rural Iowa a few years back. The number of unoccupied farm houses was incredible -- farmers retired and sold or leased the farm land, but the farmer already had a house. They were either rented very cheaply or just abandoned.... on the other hand in some markets you can sell for over half a million what would cost one third of that in a smaller city in the midwest.       Oct 25 07:07 PM
    • Have You Read Your Classic Buffett? [view article]
      I think there may be a few more value investors than there were years ago.... but the increase is overwhelmed by the increase in daytraders, momentum traders, long/short hedgers.......

      Value investing requires patience, which is in short supply.       Oct 12 10:49 AM
    • Wheeee! New Homes Sales, Prices in Freefall [view article]
      It is impossible to tell how much of the decline is lower prices for an equivalent home, and how much is what a manufacturer or retailer would call "mix" -- smaller or less luxurious homes. Not that either is good for the real estate industry, but a change in mix is certainly less painful. Sep 28 03:02 PM
    • Robert Shiller's Real Track Record [view article]
      I agree with your comment that bearish predictions seem more dramatic. Remember the hey-day of Joe Granville?

      The market is not a zero sum game; over the long run it goes up.       Sep 28 02:48 PM
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