Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Dell And Analog Devices [View article]
Ok, maybe 3/46 is not a huge miss in percentage terms, but if the market was expecting the whisper number, or the consensus number (of course it makes no difference as they are the same), it certainly didn't consider it a moderate miss, considering the stock is trading down 18%. But granted, there are factors other than the headline number at play.
If I knew the earnings were going to be 43, I would have stayed out. Which I did anyway, so it makes no difference.
Testy Tuesday: All Better Or Just Bouncing? [View article]
Don't be such a fool. 401ks are long term plans; in the short-term all kinds of machinations go on with all kinds of actors deviously involved but in the long term it's TPTB that set the parameters within and according to which the economy, and the markets that track it, must function. As traders/investors we do our best to play a rigged game. As Phil says, sure, it's rigged; you need to know that and have a go at gaming their games in order to be able to make anything out of this game.
Bit of a weird article. You spend most of it talking about how the Chinese are unlikely to be able to forestall a perhaps significant contraction which will have significant and deleterious ramifications on various markets, and just before the end, you slip in the line that you believe the drop in commodities will be an enormous stimulus to the US economy. Perhaps you should just make it easy for us and tell us whether you are bullish or bearish on equities from here. Man speak with forked tongue!
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Dell And Analog Devices [View article]
Hi Do you track the outcomes vs the whisper numbers? We can see that the Dell whisper number was way off; without knowing the track record of these whisper numbers it is impossible to gauge their efficacy.
S&P 500 Giving Signs Of Selling Exhaustion Indicating Melt Up More Likely Than Crash [View article]
"I think this is a useful reminder that amid these headlines and panic in the markets, the euro is ... doing OK. The "Greek drama" first erupted in 2010 with the euro hitting a low of 1.15 and we are above those levels, even as the situation seems more terminal today."
I was thinking the same thing.
As to the put/call ratio....you need to bear in mind that at some point, the market will fall on an elevated put/call ratio, and continue to fall. Probably all that happens is that the put sellers hedge themselves, perhaps by going outright short the underlying, creating further selling pressure, until prices reach ridiculous levels at which they are probably happy to face the prospect of assignment. That is perhaps how crashes happen (although that's just speculation on my part).
I Told You So: Facebook's Ugly IPO Debut [View article]
Well, one way of looking at it is this: Despite your crowing, pretty much every man and his dog has been voicing the opinion that FB is a sucker's bet, being extremely overvalued and being fed to stupid retail investors. So, I would say, the widely held view is that the stock is overpriced, and ergo, it will fall. The underwriters have apparently been sitting on the bid at 38 as per their contractual obligations. Since the price hit and tested 38 several times today, we can probably assume that they are sitting on a reasonable amount of FB stock. So, what are they going to do with it? Presumably they are going to engineer a squeeze, either from 38, or from below 38 (even better because there are probably a mountain of stop sell orders sitting just below 38). They could do this in conjunction with a rally in the wider markets from here.
That's just one scenario, based on how we know those with money like to screw those without. Probably won't happen that way though (things never do).
The S&P 500 Is Range Bound, Time To Be Patient [View article]
I agree with all of your observations, with the caveat that you can never tell what is just around the corner, because a) to paraphrase Rumsfeld, there are always unknown unknowns, in addition to the known unknowns b) the smart players always have a plan, and, as smart as I try to be, since their membership is closed to me I cannot read their minds. For all we know they are getting ready to sell hard tomorrow to take us down to 1330. How can we possibly know?
Will Equities Follow The Slowing Economy Or Not? [View article]
Excellent article. I like your writing style. The decidedly (thus far - 34 mins to market open) luke-warm reaction to today's better-than-expected initial jobless claims suggests we could be headed back down to 1360 area. Let's see.
Furthermore, with WTIC trading over $10 above its 200MA, I would hazard that the chances of it dipping to test it are more likely than the 200MA rising to meet the price. If WTIC drops, stocks will do so as well.
Pretty sure Jack B was saying "nothing to worry about here" last year around July after the first few days of selling which within days went on to take the SPX to 1100 from 1300.
Whipsaw Wednesday: Apple Today Keeps The Fed At Bay [View article]
In addition the FTSE is not looking particularly bullish, although a red flag on outright bearishness is the SSEC which may have bottomed (at last); could be responsible for copper's rally today; first time for a while that copper has been stronger than SPX. DX could be headed for a small leg down also. Whether that would be bullish or bearish for SPX is difficult to tell; the $ - SPX correlation doesn't seem clear to me at the moment.
2 Stocks To Trade, And What's Next For The Market [View article]
Sorry, what is a reverse iron condor? Thanks in advance.
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Dell And Analog Devices [View article]
If I knew the earnings were going to be 43, I would have stayed out. Which I did anyway, so it makes no difference.
Thanks anyway.
Testy Tuesday: All Better Or Just Bouncing? [View article]
As traders/investors we do our best to play a rigged game. As Phil says, sure, it's rigged; you need to know that and have a go at gaming their games in order to be able to make anything out of this game.
We're Off To See The Wizard [View article]
Perhaps you should just make it easy for us and tell us whether you are bullish or bearish on equities from here. Man speak with forked tongue!
Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Dell And Analog Devices [View article]
Do you track the outcomes vs the whisper numbers? We can see that the Dell whisper number was way off; without knowing the track record of these whisper numbers it is impossible to gauge their efficacy.
ECRI Reaffirms Recession Call Again [View article]
Great Expectations Overhyped [View article]
S&P 500 Giving Signs Of Selling Exhaustion Indicating Melt Up More Likely Than Crash [View article]
I was thinking the same thing.
As to the put/call ratio....you need to bear in mind that at some point, the market will fall on an elevated put/call ratio, and continue to fall.
Probably all that happens is that the put sellers hedge themselves, perhaps by going outright short the underlying, creating further selling pressure, until prices reach ridiculous levels at which they are probably happy to face the prospect of assignment. That is perhaps how crashes happen (although that's just speculation on my part).
I Told You So: Facebook's Ugly IPO Debut [View article]
So, I would say, the widely held view is that the stock is overpriced, and ergo, it will fall.
The underwriters have apparently been sitting on the bid at 38 as per their contractual obligations. Since the price hit and tested 38 several times today, we can probably assume that they are sitting on a reasonable amount of FB stock.
So, what are they going to do with it? Presumably they are going to engineer a squeeze, either from 38, or from below 38 (even better because there are probably a mountain of stop sell orders sitting just below 38).
They could do this in conjunction with a rally in the wider markets from here.
That's just one scenario, based on how we know those with money like to screw those without. Probably won't happen that way though (things never do).
The S&P 500 Is Range Bound, Time To Be Patient [View article]
a) to paraphrase Rumsfeld, there are always unknown unknowns, in addition to the known unknowns
b) the smart players always have a plan, and, as smart as I try to be, since their membership is closed to me I cannot read their minds. For all we know they are getting ready to sell hard tomorrow to take us down to 1330. How can we possibly know?
Will Equities Follow The Slowing Economy Or Not? [View article]
The decidedly (thus far - 34 mins to market open) luke-warm reaction to today's better-than-expected initial jobless claims suggests we could be headed back down to 1360 area. Let's see.
Base Metals: The 'Tell' [View article]
Base Metals: The 'Tell' [View article]
Looks pretty weak.
This May, Don't Sell [View article]
Whipsaw Wednesday: Apple Today Keeps The Fed At Bay [View article]