Housing's Hard Landing May Already Be Here

A brutal piece in Comstock Funds was highlighted in Marketbeat Friday. The Comstock boys ask "Is the Housing Hard Landing Already Here?" (Their answer is a resounding yes).

Here is Housing by the numbers:

• 32.6% of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000

• 43% of first-time home buyers in 2005 put no money down.

• 15.2% of 2005 home buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth.

• 10% of all home owners have no equity in their homes

• $2.7 trillion in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.

• 70% of borrowers who took out pay-option ARMS in the past year have loan balances larger than their initial loan.

• Homeowners face higher payments as mortgages are reset. Generally, monthly payments rise between $200 and $500 depending on the size of the mortgage.

• According to Reality Trac, August foreclosures were up 23% over July and 53% over a year ago.

• The number of homes for sale is at record highs, and inventories are 59% higher than a year earlier.

• New home sales are down 22% and existing home sales down 11%.

• The NASB housing market index has recorded an all-time decline.

• The housing affordability index is at a 15-year low.

• The house price-to-income (rents) ratio is off the charts. According to HSBC, in 18 states accounting for over 40% of national home values, the price-to-income ratio is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.

• The OFHEO index of house prices deflated by the consumption price deflator has soared to a record high of 350 from 250 in 2001. From 1976 to 1996 it never was above 220.

• According to the NAR the year-to year prices of existing homes are now flat. A short time ago they were rising at a yearly rate of 16%.

• Nationally, home prices have not declined on a year-to-year basis since 1933. Recently, however, prices have been dropping in the North East, West and Mid-West.

• Sales incentives are now estimated at 3% to 7% of selling prices.

Wow -- that is some soft landing you got there . . .